The field of cybersecurity is staring down the barrel of a fundamental shift in how we look at security and encryption, and quantum computers are holding the business end of this particular boom stick. A computer’s thought process will run in the binary code known as bits, where 1s and 0s are processed in order. However, advancements in quantum computing promise to think in qubits, as the 1s and 0s are processed at the same time. This change allows these machines to work exponentially faster than previously thought possible.
The current gold standard for encryption is AES-256. This algorithm is used all over the world and in just about every industry you can think of. The main advantage of AES-256 is the sheer size of the key that needs to be decrypted. It is estimated that even a modern-day supercomputer would take millions or even billions of years to crack one of these keys using a simple brute force attack. This timeline is completely shattered when considering the computing ability quantum brings to the field. It is estimated that this power of processing would be able to decipher AES-256 keys in only minutes. The implications of this are not only that new encryption standards will be vastly different, but that the previously practically unbreakable standard will only be viable until quantum computers come onto the scene in a decade or two.
Even though an actionable threat of that magnitude is still most likely decades away, there have been significant breakthroughs in the world of quantum as recently as February of 2025. These advances by themselves are not currently enough to pose a threat, but researchers could use a chip like Microsoft’s Majorana to further speed up the research of quantum technology and gather speed and substance like a very sophisticated snowball. One of the largest challenges in building a computer like this is the qubits themselves. They are inherently unstable and are prone to errors when only a few hundred or even a thousand of them are used. The Microsoft chip seemingly fixes a large part of that problem by changing the way they stabilize the qubits, reducing the volatility and error-prone nature of the fickle bits.
Naturally, there are roadblocks that “throwing more horsepower at it” will not solve. Encryption techniques and processes like key expansion, key whitening, and diffusion will not be directly susceptible to the key cracking abilities of quantum computers. The real power in these methods is only viable if the original keys are kept from the public. If an attacker can chip away at the original key, the extra layers on top of that are meaningless. Key expansion needs to keep its key schedule secret, key whitening needs to keep the pattern of obfuscation secret, and diffusion needs to keep its S and P boxes secret.
Quantum computers pose not only a problem to current encryption methods, but also a solution. Quantum encryption could be the answer to such powerful brute force attacks. These computers and methods will work in tandem with current encryption to provide secure key sharing for the end users of the encrypted data. Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) uses principles like the no-cloning theorem and the observer effect to eliminate eavesdropping on a secure transmission of data. Coupling the complexity of AES-256 with the security of QKD could be a real-world answer to the looming threats ahead.
Of course, the best time to prepare for an attack is before the fact, not after. Companies are increasingly feeling the need to understand and prepare for this new chapter of computing. Although it may sound like this is still in the distant future, this push is not all hearsay and theory. NIST has released three new standards for post-quantum encryption: FIPS 203, FIPS 204, and FIPS 205. The United Nations has dubbed 2025 the international year or quantum science and technology. Microsoft has announced a new quantum-ready program that will assist leaders and businesses in getting ready for this new world of computing. All indicators point to this train arriving sooner than we thought. Don’t miss it.
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